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NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Weather Briefing Monday January 15th - Wednesday January 24th, 2018

 This email is intended for critical weather partners in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties.

Two storms could bring rain and mountain snow Thursday night-Friday night and early next week...

...High Surf and strong rip currents to affect beaches Monday-Wednesday Night

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

Storm 1 (Thursday Night-Friday Night)

  • Chance of light rain for all of SW California
  • Rainfall amounts generally less than 0.33 inches
    • Montecito rain estimates: 0.10-0.20 inches with light rainfall intensities
  • Potential snow showers and gusty northwest winds for mountains and higher foothills Friday afternoon/night (snow levels lowering to 3000-4000 feet)


Storm 2 (Monday January 22nd - Wednesday January 24th)

  • A second storm system could bring additional rain/mountain snow but still considerable uncertainty in timing and amounts
    • Possibly higher rainfall totals and intensities than storm 1

High Surf (Monday-Wednesday Night)

  • Central Coast - breakers of 12-18 feet with local sets to 20 feet
  • LA/Ventura counties (west facing beaches) - breakers of 6-12 feet


POTENTIAL IMPACTS

  • Threat of additional light rain across Montecito could hamper recovery efforts.
  • Potential travel delays along Interstate 5 near Grapevine due to snow showers with both storms
  • High surf event could bring strong and deadly rip currents, sneaker waves, and minor coastal flooding


FORECAST CONFIDENCE

Moderate confidence in timing and amounts for Storm 1

Low Confidence in timing and amounts for Storm 2

High Confidence in high surf conditions this week

WEATHER SYNOPSIS

A weak cold front will potentially bring light rain to much of Southwest California Thursday night into Friday morning. Behind the front, a much colder air mass will move into the area Friday afternoon into Friday night bringing a threat of additional showers, especially in the mountains where snow levels are expected to fall to between 3000 and 4000 feet. Rainfall amounts and intensities with this first storm are expected to be light. There could be potential snow and wind impacts on Interstate 5 near the Grapevine by Friday afternoon and night. A second storm system could impact Southwest California early next week, most likely sometime between Monday and Wednesday. Long range computer models have shown considerable fluctuations in the timing and amounts with this second storm, but there is the potential for higher rainfall amounts and intensities as compared to storm 1. A long period westerly swell will bring high surf conditions this week to the Central Coast and west facing beaches of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, along with the threat of dangerous rip currents, sneaker waves, and minor coastal flooding.

Check our website at www.weather.gov/losangeles

Contact NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard at (805) 988-6619 at any time (unlisted).

Monitor NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Facebook and Twitter accounts.

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