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Significant Storm for Southwest California Monday through Wednesday Morning

 This email is intended for critical weather partners in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties.

...Significant storm for Southwest California Monday through Wednesday Morning...


  • First significant winter storm of season likely
    • Widespread moderate to heavy rain possible across Southwest California
      • Period of heaviest rainfall Monday night and Tuesday
    • Thunderstorms possible Monday night through Tuesday evening
    • Rainfall estimates:
      • 1-2" for coasts and valleys
      • 2-4" for foothills and mountains
    • Strong and possibly damaging southerly winds, mainly in the mountains
    • Resort-level snow:
      • 5-10" above 5000 feet
      • Snow level lowering to around 4,000 ft late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning across the Grapevine. Snow level should remain around 4500- 5000 feet across the Eastern San Gabriel Mountains
        • Likely affecting the Interstate 5 Corridor with snow and icy conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.


  • Flash flooding and debris flows possible in recent burn areas due to potential for heavier rainfall intensities
  • Urban roadway flooding, with traffic delays and possible road closures
  • Downed tree limbs and power lines, especially in mountains
  • Winter driving conditions expected across resort levels, then spreading down to lower mountain elevations by Tuesday night


Moderate to high confidence in timing

Moderate confidence in rainfall/snowfall amounts, and gusty winds


A slow moving upper level low pressure system will bring the first significant winter storm of the season to Southwest California early next week. Rain will begin across the Central Coast during the day on Monday then spread into Ventura and Los Angeles counties Monday night and Tuesday. Showers will continue across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Additionally, there will be the potential for thunderstorms from Monday night through Tuesday evening. Current rainfall estimates with this storm range from 1-2 inches across coastal and valley areas to 2-4 inches across the foothills and mountains with the highest rainfall totals along south-facing mountain slopes. With the threat of heavier rainfall, the most significant potential impact will be flash flooding and debris flows in recent burn areas, including the Thomas, Creek and LaTuna burn areas.

Initially, snow levels will likely be rather high due to the southerly flow, but colder air is expected to filter in during the day on Tuesday,resulting in accumulating snowfall above 5000 feet. People planning travel during this period should be prepared for the potential for traffic delays and possible road closures, especially in the recent burn areas.

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Contact NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard at (805) 988-6619 at any time (unlisted).

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Curt Kaplan
NWS ForecasterSocial Media / Tsunami Program LeaderNational Weather ServiceLos Angeles/Oxnard W

NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Weather Briefing ...

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